In the game of Hold'em there are plenty
of times you will need a card to show itself
on the flop, turn, or the river. For instance,
you may need to know the odds of catching
that club on the river for the flush, or
flopping the third 8 to go with the two
in your hand.
In order to compute the odds of finding
the card you need on the board, you will
need to know two things. The first is
how many 'Outs' you have. 'Outs' are simply
the number of cards that can 'make' your
hand. If you are looking for that flush
on the river, there are 9 cards that can
help you. (13 clubs in the deck - 4 clubs
in your hand or on the board = 9 clubs
remaining).
The second thing to know is the number
of unseen cards. Since two cards are in
your hand, and four are on the board,
there are 46 card remaining. (52-2=50
followed by 50-4=46).
Now computing the odds is a simple division
problem. 9 cards that can help, divided
by 46 cards out there, equals 19.6%. (9÷46=19.56%).
That's how you do it. Ok, 9÷46 isn't
so simple, but still, that's how it's
done.
Information you can use right away:
Flush: If you hold a four flush, the odds
of catching it on the turn are 19.1%,
on the river is 19.6%. Catching it on
the turn or the river is 35.0% Open-Ended
Straight: Odds of catching your card on
the turn, 17.0%. On the river, 17.4%.
On the turn or the river, 31.5% Gutshot
Straight: Catching your card on the turn,
8.5%. Catching your cad on the river,
8.7%. Catching it on the turn or the river,
16.5% Trips: Turn your pair into Three-of-a-Kind
on the turn, 4.3%. Catch at the river,
4.3%. Catch at the turn or the river,
8.4%. With pocket pairs it is more likely
you'll want to catch on the flop. Odds
of that are 11.8%
Number of Outs Available to Improve
Your Hand Outs You Hold Hope to Make 2
A Pair Three of a Kind 4 Two Pair Full
House 4 Inside Straight Straight 8 Open-ended
Straight Straight 9 Four Flush Flush 15
Open Straight Flush Draw Striaght, a Flush,
or Straight Flush Probability of Catching
an Out Outs Turn (%) River (%) Turn or
River 20 42.6 43.5 67.5% 19 40.4 41.3
65.0% 18 38.3 39.1 62.4% 17 36.2 37.0
59.8% 16 34.0 34.8 57.0% 15 31.9 32.6
54.1% 14 29.8 30.4 51.2% 13 27.7 28.3
48.1% 12 25.5 26.1 45.0% 11 23.4 23.9
41.7% 10 21.3 21.7 38.4% 9 19.1 19.6 35.0%
8 17.0 17.4 31.5% 7 14.9 15.2 27.8% 6
12.8 13.0 24.1% 5 10.6 10.9 20.4% 4 8.5
8.7 16.5% 3 6.4 6.5 12.5% 2 4.3 4.3 8.4%
1 2.1 2.2 4.3%
this article compliments of http://www.pokerprophet.com
